AGP Executive Report

Humanitarian Funding Crunch: OCHA says Afghanistan’s 2026 aid plan is only 16% funded (about $269m of $1.71b), warning millions could lose life-saving support. Women and Girls Under Pressure: UN Women warns around 50,000 Afghan women and girls in conflict-hit eastern areas face rising gender-based violence as healthcare access deteriorates. UN Security Council Watch: UNAMA’s mandate renewal is due, with reports flagging volatile security, cross-border trade disruption with Pakistan, and worsening rights for women and girls. Food Security Leadership: Carl Skau has taken over as acting executive director of WFP, as acute hunger risks expand and funding gaps deepen. Jobs Still Weak: WFP reports Afghanistan’s labor market remains fragile, with casual work averaging just 1.9 days per week in late May. Agriculture Hit: Badghis farmers report wheat bug infestations damaging crops and orchards, threatening rural incomes. Cyber Threats: Researchers say Pakistan-aligned SideCopy used Xeno RAT in spear-phishing attacks targeting Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance and provincial revenue offices. Trade/Travel Idea: A Russian business center head proposes visa-free travel between Russia and Afghanistan to boost trade and tourism. Local Economy Workaround: A feature highlights mass weddings in Kabul as a cheaper way for couples to marry amid economic hardship.

Afghanistan-Russia Trade: Afghanistan’s bilateral trade with Russia nearly doubled in 1404, rising from $296m to $590m, though exports from Afghanistan remain small (about $5m) compared with imports like fuel, timber and gas. Humanitarian Pressure on Afghans in Iran: NRC chief Jan Egeland warns that Iran’s war has shattered the lives of millions, with 3.2m displaced and Afghan refugees among the most vulnerable, as returnees face limited capacity and support in Afghanistan. Child Marriage Crackdown: The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child condemns Taliban decrees that legitimize child marriage and treat girls’ silence as consent, urging an explicit ban and restoration of girls’ education and rights. Refugee Enforcement in Pakistan: Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa authorities plan a crackdown on Afghan refugees who missed repatriation deadlines, including actions against businesses and landlords. Sanctions and Banking Bottlenecks: Afghanistan’s acting ambassador in Doha says travel restrictions and sanctions haven’t solved problems and are blocking economic growth, while frozen assets and banking limits remain major hurdles.

Humanitarian Stress Test: WHO warns 3.7 million Afghan children under 5 face acute malnutrition in 2026, with about 95,000 projected to develop severe acute malnutrition—highlighting how food insecurity, disease and weak access to health services are compounding risk. Agriculture & Food Security: Herat farmers report a sunn pest infestation damaging wheat harvests, blaming ineffective pesticides and lack of government support, raising fears for rural incomes and food supply. Local Development Spending: Logar province plans development projects worth 129 million afghanis (over $2m) across districts this year, targeting infrastructure, public services and community support. Governance & Assets: The Taliban issued a law giving the leader final authority over returning assets of people labeled “opponents,” tightening control over property and income for those deemed to oppose the regime. Education Under Pressure: Afghan children continue pursuing schooling despite poverty and shortages, with many schools lacking basic water, sanitation and heating—yet families still treat education as a path forward. Regional Trade Signals: Reports say Afghanistan and Russia signed a military-technical cooperation deal, a reminder that security ties can quickly spill into broader economic and connectivity calculations.

Iran-Afghanistan Economic Talks: Iran’s Khorasan Razavi governor met Afghanistan’s Mashhad consul general to push expanded trade, joint investment, easier work visas, and better border entry/exit management, with analysts citing Afghanistan-Iran trade now at about $3.5 billion and urging border infrastructure and customs fixes. Pharma Supply: Russia’s Pharmasyntez says it will start exporting medicines to Afghanistan this summer after an agreement with Kabul’s health ministry, with early shipments expected within two months, as patients stress the need for quality drugs. Firearms Regulation: Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry says firearm licenses will now follow a new procedure and criteria to curb gun ownership culture, with weapons routed through security agencies and regulated for economic/commercial entities. Trade/Transit Pressure: Reports say repatriation from Pakistan is resuming after Eid while the Torkham border closure continues to disrupt traders and transport, with shops tied to illegal businesses sealed in Khyber. Security-Policy Shift: Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation deal, with Moscow citing regional security and trade, and concerns about cross-border militant threats. Human Capital Under Strain: Coverage highlights Kabul families struggling to buy school supplies and a broader education squeeze, while WHO flags tobacco harms as a public health and policy challenge.

Afghanistan–Iran Economic Ties: Iran’s Khorasan Razavi governor says Afghanistan and Iran need joint investment and closer cooperation to drive economic growth, urging both sides to use existing capacities and align on issues like narcotics. Humanitarian & Food Security: WFP warns Afghanistan’s hunger crisis is worsening as drought, economic distress, forced returns and displacement collide with shrinking aid; it says it needs $313 million for March–August 2026 but has only received about half. Public Health: WHO marks World No Tobacco Day by urging stronger action against tobacco in Afghanistan, citing deceptive industry tactics and noting widespread use, including naswar and rising youth consumption. Education & Jobs: A Kabul feature highlights how families struggle to buy notebooks and school bags, while a separate report says Afghanistan’s first modern women’s fashion factory has expanded, using computerized machinery to create local employment. Road Safety for Returnees: Two separate reports describe deadly truck crashes involving Afghan returnees from Pakistan—one in Laghman killing 20 with 33 injured, another reporting at least 18 dead—blaming factors like driver fatigue and calling for emergency response and support. Security & Governance: The Taliban announced a spring offensive (“Operation Omari”), promising large-scale attacks while saying it will establish governance mechanisms in areas it controls.

Afghanistan–Uzbekistan Trade Push: An Afghan delegation joined Uzbekistan’s 65th International Flower Festival in Namangan, pitching Afghan flowers, agriculture and handicrafts to regional investors and private-sector partners through trade fairs running until July 12. Humanitarian & Transport Shock: A truck carrying Afghan returnees from Pakistan overturned on the Kabul–Nangarhar highway in Laghman’s Qarghayi district, killing at least 22 people (including 10 children) and injuring 30+ as authorities said the driver fell asleep. Security & Cross-Border Tensions: Pakistan’s foreign minister raised concerns with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about militant use of Afghan territory, while separate reporting links Afghan-based sanctuaries to Pakistan’s Balochistan Liberation Army operations. Digital Threats to Revenue: A Pakistan-linked threat actor reportedly launched a spear-phishing campaign against Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, targeting provincial revenue directorates with malware designed to steal staff directories and disrupt operations. Regional Connectivity Watch: Work continues around major regional corridors and projects, including references to TAPI and Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan infrastructure cooperation, as countries seek faster trade routes.

Trade & Transit: Afghanistan’s trade with India hit $1.001bn in 1404, up 12% year-on-year, with exports like figs, saffron, raisins and pistachios rising despite ongoing transit limits; analysts point to the need for more alternative corridors as Chabahar faces delays. Border Economics: The Afghanistan–Pakistan border closures are deepening the economic squeeze, with Kandahar’s pharmaceutical market hit hard after imports of Pakistani medicines were halted, pushing prices up and quality down as traders resort to unofficial routes. Infrastructure & Logistics: Afghanistan’s rail freight capacity is getting a boost with a new terminal on the Hairatan line, supporting regional movement and trade. Humanitarian & Aid Access: The UN says obstacles to aid deliveries in Afghanistan are growing, while WFP warns that disruptions around Iran’s ports are reducing food stocks for vulnerable groups. Skills & Jobs: UNICEF is backing technical training for Kandahar youth, including solar energy skills, aimed at income generation. Regional Security: CSTO leaders warn that Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions are spilling into broader regional stability, urging stronger border security cooperation.

Afghanistan–Russia Security Ties: Russia has agreed to provide modern air-defence systems and broader military assistance to the Taliban administration, with discussions led by Taliban defence minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid during a Moscow visit. Kabul Education Costs: Low pay, delayed salaries and heavy workloads are pushing Kabul’s private school teachers into hardship, raising concerns about education quality and the future of the sector. Kandahar Livelihood Shift: In Shah Wali Kot, farmers say beekeeping support is improving incomes and could reduce incentives to return to illicit cultivation, after UNODC-backed distribution of honeybee colonies. Women’s Small Businesses in Ghor: Women in Ghor report that Taliban restrictions plus reduced international aid have crippled small businesses that once provided income and financial independence. Herat Child Labour Pressure: An investigation in Herat finds children working in unsafe, exploitative conditions—often near drug use and crime—with limited access to schooling. Trade & Transport: Afghanistan has completed works to boost freight capacity on the Uzbekistan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway line, opening a new fifth freight facility on the route.

Afghanistan–Central Asia Trade: Uzbekistan’s private sector signed new trade agreements and memorandums with Afghanistan worth over $5 billion in the past eight months, covering fruits, stones, coal, cement, carpets, cotton, food and pharmaceuticals, with bilateral trade turnover rising from about $400–500m to $1.5bn and potentially nearing $5bn in 1–2 years. Regional Diplomacy: Kabul’s Islamic Emirate says it is pursuing “balanced and constructive” relations with neighbors, citing ties with Uzbekistan, Iran, China and Turkmenistan, while saying tensions with Pakistan stem from Islamabad’s “actions and violations” and that diplomatic efforts continue to reduce friction. Defense Cooperation Watch: Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation pact in Moscow, with no full details released, signaling deeper Moscow influence in Central Asia and potential shifts in security cooperation despite constraints from sanctions and Russia’s war pressures. Humanitarian & Economic Pressure: A World Bank warning highlights worsening poverty and economic pressures in Afghanistan, as the country faces a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Trade & Markets: Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia topped $1.27 billion in the first five months of 2026, with exports around $74 million and imports about $1.204 billion, led by dried and fresh fruits, talc stone, vegetables, medicinal plants and juices—though traders warn banking gaps, transit problems and high transport costs still cap export growth. Energy & Regional Connectivity: Turkmenistan and UN officials met to push forward the long-stalled TAPI gas pipeline, focusing on practical implementation inside Afghanistan and aligning UNAMA efforts for regional economic recovery. Security & Diplomacy: Afghanistan and Russia signed a military and technical cooperation agreement in Moscow, with both sides citing counter-terrorism and drug-fighting goals and analysts expecting a new phase of defense ties. Human Rights & Women’s Economy: UN Women renewed calls for Afghan women and girls to live free from violence and restrictions, warning that bans on education and employment are deepening Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crisis. Digital Operations: HALO Trust expanded Microsoft 365 governance across 36 countries using CoreView and Cyber Vigilance, aiming to improve centralized control while letting local teams operate securely. Public Health: World Menstrual Hygiene Day highlighted ongoing barriers in Afghanistan—fear, shame, lack of prior information, and limited access to sanitary products and healthcare.

Immigration & Cost of Living: In Japan’s Mito, foreign residents including Afghans raised concerns over proposed higher fees for residency renewals and tougher rules on illegal work, warning the changes could squeeze rent, food and children’s schooling. Humanitarian & Economic Pressure: A World Bank warning says Afghanistan’s economy may face serious challenges despite modest growth, while another report flags 11 million people facing crisis-level hunger. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed over $5 billion in trade agreements, and efforts are underway to modernize Hairatan Port; separately, a new container rail route links China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Security & Regional Deals: Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement in Moscow, while the Taliban also urged expanded political relations with the world within Islamic Sharia. Infrastructure & Energy: Naghlu dam power generation hit its highest level in 17 years, and Afghanistan’s government approved 15 projects worth about $68 million. Border Strain: Reports say Afghanistan-Pakistan border closures are deepening an economic crisis. Aid for Returnees: UN and aid agencies launched a major 2026 response plan for Afghan returnees, with UNICEF calling for $520m support.

Afghanistan Economy: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy is still growing modestly (real GDP ~4.8%), but per-capita income is falling as returns outpace growth, with inflation rising and poverty and food insecurity worsening. Humanitarian & Food Security: A separate World Bank warning highlights that acute food insecurity could climb sharply this winter, with millions at risk. Trade & Logistics: Uzbekistan reported foreign trade turnover of about $26.3bn in Jan–Apr 2026, with Afghanistan listed among key partners, while Uzbekistan also pushes connectivity via new cargo and rail steps involving Hairatan. Border Pressure & Returns: Taliban-linked reporting says hundreds of families were deported/returned from Pakistan in a single day, echoing broader concerns about forced returns. Digital Governance Risk: Researchers flagged the Taliban’s “National Keyboard” app as a high-risk tool for surveillance and data exposure, urging caution for journalists and activists. Women & Social Crisis: Multiple reports underline ongoing hardship for girls and women, including forced marriage and lack of menstrual hygiene support. Security & Instability: Reports also point to continued violence around Kabul markets and wider regional instability affecting livelihoods and trade.

Pak-Afghan Diplomacy: China is pushing a second round of the “Urumqi process” to ease Islamabad-Kabul tensions, after a first meeting earlier this year sparked cautious optimism for trade and border movement. Humanitarian Pressure: OCHA warns Afghanistan’s crisis is worsening as cross-border hostilities with Pakistan, floods, and funding gaps collide, with UNAMA reporting hundreds of civilian casualties and major disruption to health and education. Economy, Not Living Standards: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s GDP growth (about 4.8%) isn’t translating into higher incomes, as per-capita earnings fall and inflation squeezes households. Trade & Ports: Uzbekistan-Afghanistan deals top $5B, while Hairatan port is moving toward 24-hour customs and modernization to speed exports and imports. Eid Costs: Ahead of Eid al-Adha, Kabul’s food prices are rising sharply, with the Strait of Hormuz closure blamed for broader price pressure.

Kabul Violence: Four people were killed in a shooting at a jewelry market near Sarai Shahzada, with police arresting suspects and officials citing a possible personal dispute. Trade Pressure: Afghanistan’s economy is still getting squeezed as Pakistan border closures and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep raising prices and choking supply chains; even aid groups report higher transport costs and shortages. Taliban Finances: A World Bank monitor says Taliban revenue rose over 5% in April to nearly 20 billion afghanis, driven mainly by stronger tax collection, even as customs receipts slipped. Regional Security Diplomacy: China and Pakistan issued a joint statement stressing that Afghan territory must not be used by militant groups, while also pushing CPEC upgrades and Gwadar connectivity. Humanitarian Support: UNICEF highlights child-friendly spaces as a safe haven for play and learning, and Uzbekistan delivered 200 tonnes of flood aid to Balkh. Local Livelihoods: A returnee woman in Kabul is building a home-based chocolate business, turning skills learned in Iran into work for her family.

Regional Security Debate: Pakistan’s opposition leader Mahmood Khan Achakzai says today’s instability traces back to policies during the Afghanistan war, when fighters were trained in Pakistan—while Jamaat-e-Islami urges reopening border crossings to ease economic pressure on traders and families. Trade & Aid Pressure: With the Strait of Hormuz under strain, Afghanistan’s supply routes are getting squeezed; the World Food Programme warns that higher transport costs and disrupted sourcing have pushed critical nutrition stocks down sharply, putting millions of children at risk. Eid Economy in Focus: In Jalalabad, Eid al-Adha markets are busy but prices bite—people still buy animals and get knives sharpened, even as families in Kabul say poverty and unemployment are killing the festive spirit. Human Rights Under Spotlight: The European Parliament backs tougher sanctions on the Taliban, citing a 2026 criminal procedure code that legalizes abuse and restricts women’s rights. Ongoing Humanitarian Concern: UN rights chief Volker Türk condemns forced returns of Afghan refugees from Pakistan as a breach of international law.

Afghan Flood Toll: Torrential rains and flash floods across Panjshir, Paktia, Baghlan and Takhar killed at least 11 people and injured 15, damaging homes, farmland and roads. Kabul Violence: A deadly shooting near Sarai Shahzada currency market left four dead, including the son of former lawmaker Allah Gul Mujahid. Press Crackdown: Taliban authorities in Kandahar suspended three private radio stations and warned others to regularize licensing, tightening control over independent media. Forced Returns Pressure: Pakistan deported 4,237 Afghans in a single day, adding to a wider surge of returns that is straining border areas and aid capacity. Trade & Logistics Boost: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan opened a new dry port cargo terminal on the Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway, aiming to raise freight volumes. Industry Signal: Afghanistan’s footwear sector says it has reached self-sufficiency, with about 180 plants operating in Mazar-i-Sharif.