AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan Hunger Crisis: The WFP says severe food insecurity is hitting 13.8 million people, with nearly 5 million children, pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers suffering malnutrition as a budget shortfall forces cuts. Returnee Pressure: The UN has pledged $529 million to support about 2.7 million Afghans expected to return from Iran and Pakistan in 2026, warning many are coming back without shelter or basic services. Local Business Squeeze: In Balkh, business owners complain Taliban tax collection is turning into a twice-a-year extortion cycle, with arbitrary demands and no proper accounting. Energy Push: Afghanistan’s national power company says it has contracts for 17 electricity projects totaling 1,820 MW, aiming to boost domestic generation. Industry Jobs: Construction has started on a $200m iron smelting factory in Logar, expected to create thousands of jobs over the next four years. Regional Context: Pakistan’s defense minister reportedly regretted Islamabad’s past interference in Afghanistan, while talks on improving Kabul-Islamabad relations continue.

UN Humanitarian Push: The UN and partners unveiled a $529 million plan to support 2.7 million Afghans expected to return from Iran and Pakistan this year, warning the surge is straining Afghanistan’s economy and public services. Forced Returns Pressure: IOM says returns from Pakistan stayed high in early 2026, driven largely by fear of arrest and debt. Trade & Connectivity: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan agreed to expand trade ties, while the Eurasian Development Bank floated a regional transport framework aimed at boosting cross-route freight flows. Domestic Industry Spotlight: Taliban officials say Afghanistan’s pharma production is rising, with a new Abu Ali Sina Balkhi exhibition highlighting local output. Health Crisis: In Kandahar, MSF reports rising TB cases among malnourished children, tied to aid cuts and limited access to care. Poverty Fallout: BBC reporting from Ghor describes families selling children to survive as hunger deepens. Governance Friction: Kabul taxi drivers complain about Taliban repainting costs and refusal to accept cheaper open-market work.

Taliban-era rights and aid pressure: AAN reports women’s healthcare is collapsing as clinics close, female staff shortages grow, girls’ education is blocked, and foreign aid declines—leaving even transport costs out of reach. Everyday governance and services: In Balkh, three water supply networks were completed with Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund support, delivering safe drinking water to about 2,100 families. Security and fear: Kabul residents describe Taliban harassment at checkpoints, including alleged humiliation over language and beards and claims of drug planting and extortion. Regional diplomacy: Qatar’s ambassador to Kabul says Doha is working to reduce Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions through dialogue, while Iran’s president thanked Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan for preventing misuse of their territory against Iran. Economy and connectivity: Afghanistan and Russia say they share interests and want to expand trade and transit, as ADB is reportedly likely to approve about $1.2bn for Pakistan’s ML-1 rehabilitation—highlighting how Afghanistan financing suspensions since 2021 still disrupt regional routes.

Humanitarian Funding: Denmark pledged $5.49m to the UN’s Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund to keep frontline aid moving as needs surge and international support drops. Youth & Jobs: Kabul youth say unemployment is rising and hiring is increasingly tied to Taliban connections, pushing many toward migration or low-paid work. Security & Extraction: In Badakhshan’s Darwaz, Taliban “permit trade” is tightening control over Darwaz gold mines, with reports of extortion and workshop shutdowns. Education Support: UNICEF says it’s supplying school materials to help children keep learning, as the secondary education ban for girls enters its fifth year. Property Rules: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Justice banned buying and selling state-owned land plots distributed by the Islamic Emirate, warning property offices of closures and prosecutions. Food Prices: WFP reports some easing in key staples like wheat flour, cooking oil and vegetables, but warns broader economic pressure remains. Business & Trade: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan discussed cotton farming and a business delegation arrived to expand trade, while a $2m rice processing factory project began in Baghlan.

US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump again warned Iran to “move fast” or face dire consequences as talks stall over uranium, sanctions relief, and war compensation—while Tehran counters with its own demands, keeping the region’s uncertainty high. Afghanistan Connectivity Push: Afghanistan’s Public Works Ministry says new transport corridors could turn the country into a key trade and transit hub linking Central Asia to South Asia, with rail and port routes already in play. Telecom Expansion vs Cost Pain: Afghanistan’s telecom ministry says SIM registration is nearing completion (30 million registered), but Balkh residents complain prices are rising while service quality and package value shrink. Taliban Family Law Backlash: New Taliban rules reportedly treat a “virgin girl’s” silence as marriage consent and tighten father/grandfather control over child marriage—sparking renewed human-rights criticism. Public Health in the Region: A week-long anti-polio campaign begins in Pakistan’s 79 districts, targeting nearly 19 million children, with Afghanistan still listed as endemic. Road Safety: Two separate traffic crashes in Maidan Wardak and Balkh killed seven and injured three, underscoring ongoing highway risks.

Taliban Family Law: Afghanistan’s Taliban has issued new family law rules that critics say legitimize child marriage and weaken girls’ consent—reportedly including a clause where a “virgin girl’s” silence after puberty can be treated as acceptance, with fathers and grandfathers gaining major authority and court approval required for annulment. Women’s Economic Life: In Herat, a women-only “Eid Bazaar” opened with nearly 200 booths, giving entrepreneurs a rare sales push ahead of Eid. Property Rights & Development: In Kabul’s Pul-e Khushk, residents accuse Taliban authorities of demolishing homes and shops for a road project without compensation or notice, warning families were pressured to leave. Security & Crime: Helmand reported three armed robbers killed in a clash after a currency exchange robbery; Kabul also saw multiple killings over two days, including a beheading. Jobs & Industry: Baghlan began construction of a nearly $2m rice processing factory. Returns & Hunger Pressure: Taliban said 1,017 families were returned yesterday, while WFP warned it needs $350m as malnutrition cases surge.

Humanitarian Funding Crunch: WFP says it urgently needs $350 million to keep Afghanistan’s food and nutrition support running, warning that severe funding gaps plus mass returns are driving a near-record surge in malnutrition—nearly 5 million mothers and children need urgent treatment, with clinics reportedly turning people away for lack of supplements. Return Pressure: WFP also reports about 500,000 people have returned to Afghanistan since the start of 2026, with families arriving at borders like Torkham with little more than hope and no clear next meal. Women’s Rights Under Strain: A new report highlights how Taliban morality enforcement and detention practices are worsening daily life for women and girls, while separate coverage points to rising gender-based violence, including multiple femicide cases. Regional Diplomacy: Afghanistan-Russia talks in Kazan wrapped up with officials saying cooperation on mining, energy, transport, and trade is a priority. Business & Trade Signals: Herat launched a 10-day Eid exhibition for women entrepreneurs, while Pakistan’s business chamber plans a US delegation in August to deepen trade links.

Border Shock: Militants hit Pakistan’s Bajaur border outpost with an explosive vehicle and gunfire, killing at least 8 troops and injuring 35, with the TTP claiming responsibility—fresh violence that Pakistan says is tied to militant sanctuaries across the Afghan border. Forced Returns: The Taliban says 1,066 families (5,656 people) were forcibly returned to Afghanistan via Torkham, Spin Boldak, Nimroz and Islam Qala, as WFP warns the deportations are deepening Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis. Trade & Transit: Afghan and Iranian officials met at the Sheikh Abu Nasr Farahi crossing to ease movement of traders and cargo and remove transport bottlenecks. Regional Economics: Kabul and Moscow discussed expanding direct trade links and cooperation on commissions and education ties. Market Watch (Kabul): Gold, sugar and Indian rice prices fell, while petrol and diesel edged up. Press Freedom: A UK envoy urged due process after Taliban detention of journalists, following UNAMA concerns about raids and unclear charges.

Humanitarian Pressure: WFP warns Afghanistan is seeing its worst malnutrition surge on record, with about five million women and children needing urgent treatment as specialized therapeutic food runs short. Trade & Industry: India’s sugar export ban is already rattling prices and factory finances, and Afghanistan is among the listed destinations that could feel the shock. Regional Deals: Russia and Uzbekistan are continuing technical and economic studies for the Trans-Afghan railway corridor, while China and Qatar hold talks with the Islamic Emirate on Afghanistan’s next steps. Diplomacy Watch: A Notre Dame study argues UNAMA’s mission is too broad and should be refocused on politics and mediation, with more humanitarian work shifted to UN-linked agencies. Security Spillover: A militant attack on a Pakistan security compound killed nine, underscoring how instability across the border can derail Afghanistan’s economic and aid plans. Business on the Ground: Zabul’s Shahjoy district has started a 250 million-afghani commercial complex project, aiming to mix shops, processing centers, and agriculture.

Humanitarian Alarm: WFP says Afghanistan’s malnutrition crisis is hitting a record high, with about five million women and children needing urgent treatment as clinics run out of specialized therapeutic food and aid access tightens. Security Pressure: A deadly attack on a Pakistan security compound in Bajaur—claimed by the TTP—adds fresh strain to the Islamabad-Taliban ceasefire, while Russia warns Afghanistan’s terror and drug threats are escalating across the region. Returns and Rights: Pakistan’s crackdown has pushed more than 19,000 Afghans back in days, and Taliban-linked reporting restrictions keep journalists under fear of surveillance and arrest. Diplomacy and Trade: Russia says it is moving toward a “full-fledged partnership” with the Taliban at the SCO, while China and Afghanistan discuss humanitarian and economic cooperation. Local Development: Mazar-e-Sharif officials say 55 city projects are underway, from sidewalks to roundabouts. Media Spotlight: Prince Harry and Meghan’s Archewell is developing a Netflix film based on an Afghanistan war memoir.

Taliban diplomacy turns into a bigger business pitch: Russia’s Sergei Shoigu says Moscow is building a “full-fledged partnership” with the Taliban—covering security, trade, culture and humanitarian support—and is urging other regional powers to engage too. Press freedom under pressure: UN and rights groups report Taliban authorities have detained at least three journalists, with UNAMA demanding charges and fair legal process. Humanitarian squeeze hits hardest: WFP warns malnutrition is worsening as funding drops and clinics run out of life-saving supplements; UNDP says nearly 28 million Afghans can’t meet basic needs amid drought, returns, and shrinking aid. Environment alarm: Afghanistan’s NEPA released an assessment warning forests are down to under 2% of land, groundwater is depleted, and climate impacts are accelerating. Energy project momentum: Work on the TAPI pipeline continues, with major groundwork and pipeline extension progress reported, alongside plans to use gas for electricity. Regional trade signals: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan push healthcare and private-sector cooperation, including lab and trade deals.

TAPI Momentum: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum says TAPI pipeline work has advanced by 55 km inside the country, with a 125 km route prepared and road access and new pipes arriving—while officials push the idea of using TAPI gas for electricity and other outputs, with Azizi Group reportedly interested in power generation. Russia-Taliban Pivot: Sergei Shoigu says Russia is building a “full-fledged partnership” with the Taliban, urging SCO states to revive their Afghanistan contact group and warning against new foreign military infrastructure in the region. Afghan-Irrigation Urgency: With drought worsening, experts are urging a shift to drip and sprinkler irrigation in Helmand, Kandahar, Farah and Nimroz, arguing modern water systems could cut use and raise yields. Aid Pressure: Human Rights Watch warns US foreign aid cuts have weakened Afghan media in exile, while the UN says conflict-driven price and transport shocks could prevent feeding up to a million more children if fighting with Pakistan and wider regional disruptions continue. EU Migration Talks: The EU plans technical talks in Brussels with Taliban officials on repatriating Afghan migrants, as deportations and rights concerns intensify.

Afghanistan Crisis Watch: A UNDP report says Afghanistan’s limited economic gains aren’t translating into better daily life—poverty is deepening as returns surge, water and jobs stay scarce, and debt spreads. Aid Pressure: The UN also warns poverty and aid cuts are worsening the crisis, with millions facing food insecurity. Health & Infrastructure: Afghanistan signed a $46M deal to develop and equip quality laboratories, while IOM-backed work opened three health centers in Helmand—small wins, but against a backdrop of major access gaps. Land & Business Rules: The Ministry of Justice published a new state land distribution and construction permits law, aiming to formalize ownership and approvals. Regional Trade: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed $112M in private-sector trade deals, signaling continued push to connect markets. Security Spillover: Drone-linked attacks reported in Ghazni city add to concerns as Pakistan continues to accuse Kabul of sheltering militants.

Afghanistan Food Crisis: A new UNDP report says 74% of Afghans couldn’t meet basic needs in 2025, with hardship driven by weak jobs, shrinking aid, debt, water shortages, and millions of returnees arriving without savings. Afghanistan Trade & Standards: The Taliban-backed Afghanistan Standards and Quality Authority signed a $46m+ deal with an Indian firm to build and equip advanced labs in Kabul and nine border ports, aiming to tighten quality checks for imports and exports. Pakistan–Afghanistan Security Tensions: A market blast in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed at least 9 and injured dozens; Pakistan blamed Afghanistan-based extremists while the Taliban rejected the claim. Landmine Backslide: A UN mine-action expert warns progress is being reversed, as clearance rates fall and more mines/explosives are being found. Global Pressure on Justice: Spain urged the EU to activate its blocking statute to shield the ICC and UN from U.S. sanctions on officials.

Pakistan-Iran Fallout: A CBS report says Pakistan let Iranian military aircraft park at Nur Khan airbase to shield them from U.S. strikes, but Islamabad and Kabul deny any “protection” link—sparking fresh U.S. political heat, including Lindsey Graham calling for a “complete reevaluation” of Pakistan’s mediator role. Market Blast in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: In the latest spillover of regional violence, a bomb hit the crowded Naurang market in Lakki Marwat, killing 10 (including two police) and injuring dozens; Pakistan again blamed militants operating from Afghanistan while the Taliban called the accusations baseless. Afghanistan Food Pressure: The UN warns hunger remains severe: 13.8 million Afghans face severe food insecurity and millions of children and pregnant women need urgent nutrition support. Trade Push: Uzbekistan-Afghanistan deals topped $1.5bn, with agreements spanning wheat flour, cement, oil products, pasta, and fresh produce—amid ongoing border and transit bottlenecks. EU-Taliban Migration Talks: The EU plans technical meetings in Brussels with Taliban representatives on migration and deportations, drawing controversy despite claims of “non-political” engagement.

EU-Taliban Migration Talks: The European Commission confirmed it is coordinating “technical” meetings in Brussels with Taliban representatives to discuss possible returns and deportations—while insisting there’s no political recognition, the plan still leans on incentives for migration cooperation. Pakistan Security Shock: A bomb-laden rickshaw exploded in Lakki Marwat’s market, killing at least 9 (including two traffic police) and injuring 30+—the latest in a fast-escalating wave that Pakistan links to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, with Kabul calling the claims baseless. Humanitarian Pressure in Afghanistan: UN agencies warn the crisis is worsening: WFP says 13.8M face acute food insecurity and UNICEF says 11.6M children need humanitarian help, as border closures and insecurity disrupt supplies and push prices up. Afghan Business & Sports: The Afghanistan Cricket Board opened the franchise process to revive the Afghanistan Premier League, targeting a UAE restart in late 2026 and inviting global investors.