AGP Executive Report

Energy & Infrastructure: Taliban officials say construction on the Herat section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline is past the halfway mark, with 52% complete and 80 km of pipe laid, aiming to finish the Herat segment by end-2026. Trade & Markets: Afghanistan’s ambassador to Qatar met an Afghan fruit importer to boost fresh fruit exports, improve transport and market access, and expand promotion with tax incentives for traders. Finance & Inclusion: The UAE central bank (CBUAE) and the World Bank Group signed an agreement to strengthen financial inclusion, literacy, consumer protection, and dispute resolution, including digital fraud prevention. Security & Risk: Afghanistan is ranked the seventh least peaceful country in the 2026 Global Peace Index (157th of 163), with conflict and cross-border violence worsening despite slight gains in safety/security. Business & Sports Investment: The Afghanistan Cricket Board announced the Afghanistan Premier League will start Dec 27 in the UAE, with franchise bids invited for five regions by June 30. Local Economy Shock: A major fire in Mazar-i-Sharif near medical facilities reportedly caused thick smoke and explosions, with damage and casualties not yet confirmed. Regional Trade Watch: Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exports to Afghanistan reportedly rose 58% over eight months, signaling continued supply momentum.

TAPI Energy Push: Taliban officials say construction on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline in Herat has crossed the halfway mark, with 52% complete and 80 km laid, aiming to finish the Herat segment by end-2026—an infrastructure bet meant to lift regional trade and transit income. Air Connectivity: Etihad Airways will double Kabul flights to twice daily from July 15, citing demand growth and stronger business and family travel links between Afghanistan and the UAE. Trade & Finance Signals: Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025-26 highlights negative net exports but steady exchange-rate stability, with remittances rising and the current account in surplus—useful context for Afghanistan’s wider regional trade environment. Markets Watch: Pakistan’s PSX outperformed peers in FY2026’s first nine months, though fresh IPO funding stayed limited, pointing to cautious capital formation. Displacement Pressure on Economies: UNHCR reports global forced displacement fell to 117.8m in 2025, with most returns concentrated in Afghanistan—often under pressure and without stable services, raising risks for livelihoods and reintegration. Migration Policy Tension: The EU migration chief says Europe has “no option” but to talk with the Taliban on returning failed asylum-seekers, a move that could reshape future flows and costs tied to Afghanistan-bound migration. Aid Shortfall Theme: Coverage also flags Afghanistan’s humanitarian funding squeeze, adding strain to household spending and business activity in vulnerable communities.

Pakistan–Afghanistan Border Fallout: UNAMA confirmed 13 civilian deaths, mostly women and children, from Pakistani airstrikes in Khost, Kunar and Paktika, as Kabul and Islamabad trade blame and the closed border keeps trade and transport stalled. Humanitarian Pressure on Families: UNHCR says global forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, but long-term exile remains the norm; in Afghanistan, reports point to extreme coping strategies as child labor rises and families face worsening hunger. Child Labor and School Dropouts: With poverty deepening, millions of Afghan children are leaving school to work in brick kilns, markets and construction, highlighting how economic collapse is reshaping the labor market. Child Marriage as a Survival Economy: Separate reporting links famine and aid shortfalls to families selling daughters for around $3,200, turning a long-standing practice into a market driven by desperation. Regional Energy Push: Taliban officials say the TAPI pipeline’s Herat section is past the halfway mark (52%), aiming to boost transit revenues and regional trade. Macroeconomic Headwinds: The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% over Middle East war spillovers, with higher food and fuel costs likely to hit Afghanistan’s already fragile economy.

TAPI Pipeline Push: Taliban officials say the Herat section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline is 52% complete, with 80 km of pipe laid and more transport from Turkmenistan continuing—an infrastructure win that could boost transit revenues. Cross-Border Security & Civilian Impact: Pakistan renewed airstrikes on Afghanistan’s border provinces (Khost, Kunar, Paktika), with Afghan officials reporting deaths including children, while Pakistan says it hit militant hideouts and killed 26 TTP-linked fighters. Return Migration Watch: IOM reports 85,420 Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan between May 24 and June 6, with humanitarian support and security services continuing for returnees. India–Afghanistan Economic Ties: India reiterated support for Afghanistan’s peace and development and highlighted ongoing engagement, including senior visits, as New Delhi also expands trade-related facilitation. Regional Trade Disruption: Pakistan’s exports to Central Asia fell 8.62% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025-26, blamed on the closure of the Afghanistan land route and limited rerouting via Iran. Food Security Pressure: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is worsening hunger, citing added food insecurity pressures including in Afghanistan as trade and fuel costs ripple outward. Banking & Finance Signals: Afghanistan-linked regional finance themes also surfaced as banking and capital-market updates drew investor attention amid heightened geopolitical risk.

TAPI Energy Build: Taliban officials say the Herat section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline is past the halfway mark, with 52% work complete and 80 km of pipe laid, aiming to finish the Herat segment by end-2026—an important signal for future transit revenues and regional trade. Border Violence: Pakistan renewed airstrikes on Afghanistan’s Khost, Kunar and Paktika, with Kabul saying 11 children, a woman and an elderly man were killed, while Islamabad cites action against militants—raising fresh risks for cross-border commerce and stability. Food Security Shock: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is worsening hunger far beyond the region, citing higher fuel and food costs and disrupted supply chains; Afghanistan is named among countries facing mounting acute food insecurity. Returnee Pressure: IOM reports 85,420 people returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan between May 24 and June 6, with aid and protection support continuing for vulnerable arrivals. Poverty Strain: UN-linked reporting highlights worsening poverty across Afghanistan as families face rising economic pressures, adding to the strain on livelihoods.

TAPI Pipeline Progress: Afghanistan’s Herat section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline has hit 52% completion, with 80 km of pipe installed and 72.3 km of equipment delivered, as officials target finishing the 130-km Herat segment by end-2026—an upgrade that could boost jobs and future transit revenues. Trade & Transport: After nearly nine months of disruption, more than 800 empty Pakistani trucks are set to re-enter Pakistan via the Torkham border starting Wednesday, with daily crossing hours agreed to clear the backlog. Humanitarian & Economic Pressure: China urged continued international engagement with Afghanistan at the UN, citing persistent humanitarian needs and calling for lifting restrictions and returning overseas assets, while UN-linked reporting warns the wider Middle East conflict is pushing millions toward hunger, including in Afghanistan. Local Commerce: Jalalabad’s summer market is booming for traditional handicrafts—woven beds, baskets, and wooden goods—showing steady demand for locally made products. Aviation Safety Oversight: The EU updated its Air Safety List, removing Kyrgyz airlines and adding Air Express Algeria, a reminder that regional connectivity depends on compliance.

Air Connectivity Boost: Etihad Airways will double Kabul flights to twice daily from July 15, citing strong demand from both travelers and business links via Abu Dhabi. Mining Investment Push: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines says an Uzbek firm wants to invest in chromite and lead mining and set up a mineral processing plant, pending detailed proposals. Security & Rights Watch: UN reporting shows a 57.7% jump in security incidents across Afghanistan (Feb–Apr), while UN officials also flag ongoing women’s rights restrictions and underreported sexual violence. Humanitarian Education Pressure: UN warns 3.8 million girls remain out of school, calling it a “lost generation” risk amid the education ban. Local Business Disruption: A market fire in Khost damaged shops and inventories, leaving traders facing heavy losses. Regional Diplomacy: UNAMA’s mandate and costs are debated at the UN Security Council as countries press for continued engagement while the US calls for review.

UN Security Council: India and Pakistan traded sharp accusations over Afghanistan, with India calling Pakistan’s “Fitna al-Hindustan” narrative “officially sponsored misinformation” and Pakistan warning that militants operating from Afghanistan threaten world peace. Humanitarian & rights pressure: UN officials told the Security Council that Afghanistan looks stable on the surface, but worsening economic strain and severe restrictions—especially on women and girls—are deepening risks, while UN food updates link regional conflict to rising hunger, including in Afghanistan. Trade & sanctions debate: India urged a review of the UN sanctions approach, arguing punitive tools are losing effectiveness and that trade and transit restrictions hurt a landlocked country. Local economy frictions: Kabul residents complain about worn-out banknotes disrupting everyday buying and selling, with calls for more digitized payments. Security & livelihoods: Reports highlight ongoing robberies and violence affecting shops and commercial areas, underscoring instability risks for daily commerce. Digital governance: The Afghan government is moving toward a digital document system to curb forgery and corruption. Infrastructure push: Afghanistan’s asphalt paving of a strategic highway aims to improve connectivity and trade routes. Taliban policy shift: The Taliban ordered smartphone bans for members and government employees, with violations to be handled through military courts.

Infrastructure & Connectivity: Afghanistan has started asphalt paving on the Kunar–Nuristan Highway in three phases, with work underway on the first two sections (22.5 km) to boost rural access and economic activity. Digital Governance: The Afghan government plans a Digital Document System across 13 ministries and state agencies to cut forgery, corruption, and processing delays through secure electronic workflows. Public Safety & Enforcement: Afghan police report seizing 21 kg of illegal drugs and destroying drug-processing labs in Uruzgan and Farah, arresting five suspects tied to the “black business.” Trade & Agribusiness: An Uzbek firm says it can export 2,000 tonnes of Afghan fresh fruits annually to Uzbekistan, Russia and Europe, with initial transport via Uzbekistan. Mining & Revenue Claims: Taliban officials say they’ve identified nearly 600 mining sites in Panjshir, citing mineral variety and local employment, while transparency concerns remain. Women’s Rights & Law: UNAMA and rights groups criticize a Taliban marriage decree that makes divorce far harder for women, requiring witnesses and limiting judges’ ability to grant divorce without the husband’s consent. Food Security Pressure: WFP warns Middle East-linked disruptions are worsening hunger, with Afghanistan among the hardest hit as aid and supply chains strain.

Humanitarian Funding Gap: Luxembourg pledged €300,000 to the Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund, as OCHA warns only 16% of the $1.72bn needed for 17.5m people has been secured, with acute hunger affecting 14.8m Afghans. Financial Integrity: Da Afghanistan Bank warns investors after Gold BS faced allegations of a large-scale scam, with accounts reportedly blocked and unusually high returns drawing people into prohibited forex trading. Sanctions & Trade Risks: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Iran-linked LPG smuggling, blacklisting six LPG carriers and adding Afghan businessman Sarbaz Abdul Zada and others tied to shadow trading networks. Governance & Security: Kandahar hosted a meeting of governors from Afghanistan’s seven regional zones, focusing on decree implementation, anti-corruption, police-community relations, and counter-narcotics. Regional Business & Connectivity: Ariana Afghan Airlines launched daily Kabul–New Delhi flights to boost travel and trade links. Agriculture & Prices: Untimely April rains damaged mango and wheat, threatening yields and raising concerns for upcoming rice and cotton seasons. Investment Climate Watch: Afghan investors report heavy losses tied to Gold BS fraud allegations, prompting central bank calls for due diligence. Governors’ Budget Context: Pakistan proposed Rs251.68bn for uplift projects across provinces and former FATA areas for FY26-27, highlighting how regional development funding can shape local economic activity.

UN Oversight: UNAMA says the UN Security Council will hold a special meeting on Afghanistan on June 8, with concerns centered on Taliban restrictions on women’s education and employment and declining humanitarian assistance. Human Rights: UNAMA also reports that women in Herat were detained over alleged non-compliance with Taliban dress rules, warning of serious rights violations. Trade & Connectivity: Ariana Afghan Airlines has launched daily Kabul–Delhi passenger and cargo flights, aiming to boost trade access and investment links. Electricity Infrastructure: DABS says CASA-1000 work is progressing in three phases across Afghanistan, with the project expected to generate about $60m annually and strengthen regional economic stability. Judicial Activity: Afghanistan’s Supreme Court reports 70,376 cases processed and 37,995 legal documents executed in the third quarter of 1447 AH. Returnee Support: Afghanistan’s migrants commission says 488 families returned in 24 hours and that residential plots and cash assistance were distributed to returnees. Security & Economy: Police in Kabul report rounding up 90,000 beggars over four years, while Ghazni authorities say they seized 44kg of opium and detained a suspected smuggler.

Trade & Diplomacy: Iran’s Consul General in Nangarhar says a joint Afghan-Iranian products exhibition will be held in Jalalabad to connect traders, expand market access, and boost investment. Humanitarian Supply Chains: WFP says fortified biscuits reached Afghanistan after detours through nine countries because the Afghanistan–Pakistan border and the Strait of Hormuz were closed, with delivery via Torghundi and distribution planned for 172,000 schoolchildren. Food Security Shock: UN/WFP warns the Iran conflict is pushing millions toward acute hunger, citing spillovers from higher food and fuel costs and disrupted trade; Afghanistan is among the hardest hit. Regional Economic Engagement: Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate is seeking broader economic cooperation at the St. Petersburg forum, with talks in Moscow focused on trade volume and opportunities for Afghan entrepreneurs. Regional Representation: Zabihullah Mujahid says Afghanistan should be included in all regional meetings so decisions reflect Afghan interests, while the economy ministry links regional stability to Afghanistan’s participation. UN Oversight: The UN Security Council will hold its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan, with UNAMA and humanitarian officials expected to brief on political, security, humanitarian, and human rights developments. Security & Crime: Taliban authorities report arrests tied to robbery, weapons smuggling, and narcotics, including cases involving kidnapping and currency smuggling along border routes.

Afghanistan Humanitarian Watch: Canada convened a UN “Friends of Afghanistan” meeting as UN agencies warned that 21.9 million people need aid in 2026, with severe food insecurity and child malnutrition worsening amid funding gaps and restricted access. Food Prices & Livelihoods: The WFP says the Iran conflict is driving global fuel and food costs higher, adding 2.3 million people in Afghanistan to acute hunger risk and forcing aid cuts. Border Pressure & Returns: Taliban reported 682 families returned from neighboring countries on June 5, highlighting growing strain from deportations and unemployment on already limited services. Kabul Market Signals: Kabul traders reported declines in prices of Indian sugar, cooking oil, and gold over the past week, while other staples stayed steady. Women’s Rights & Compliance: A Tufts University report says Taliban policies from 2021–2025 systematically violate women’s rights under CEDAW, renewing calls for accountability. Education Access: A Farah field report says children in returnee and displacement settlements lack functioning schools and are pushed into work due to poverty and distance. Regional Trade Link: Uzbekistan reported a strong trade surge in Jan–Apr 2026, with Afghanistan among growing partners. Security & Crime: Taliban said it arrested nearly 2,000 people in one month, citing robberies, theft, weapons smuggling, and narcotics-related cases.

Regional Connectivity & Rail: At the second Termez Dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan pushed the Afghan-Trans railway forward, saying the economic and technical feasibility study is in an active phase and should finish by year-end, with the aim of plugging Afghanistan into Central and South Asia trade routes. Migration & Jobs Pressure: UNHCR warned of a massive return wave, saying more than 700,000 Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2026, with returnees reporting shelter gaps, weak employment prospects, and mounting hardship. Food Security Shock: The WFP said the Iran war is driving fuel and transport costs up and aid funding down, putting Afghanistan among the most affected, with millions at risk of acute hunger as disruptions to trade and energy persist. Afghan-Pakistan Security Rift: Analysis highlights a sharp deterioration in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, with cross-border strikes and retaliations deepening a structural rupture after earlier hopes of de-escalation. Energy & Power Reliability: Kabul residents complain of worsening electricity outages, with some reporting only about three hours of power daily, raising concerns for household livelihoods and investment. Agriculture Losses: Floods in Baghlan destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, dealing fresh economic blows to farmers. Trade Policy & Transit Talks: Separate reporting notes growing Uzbekistan-Afghanistan economic cooperation, including major deal values since late 2025, even as sanctions and lack of recognition still limit Afghanistan’s trade expansion.

Humanitarian Pressure: The UN World Food Programme says the Middle East conflict is already pushing millions toward hunger, with oil-price and shipping disruptions raising fuel and food costs while aid funding gaps force cutbacks—Afghanistan is among the hardest hit, with WFP projecting 17.4 million people affected and warning the situation could worsen if disruptions persist. Water & Climate Risk: UNAMA reports more than half of Afghanistan’s population is affected by drought and water scarcity, as rivers become unpredictable, irrigation systems collapse, and communities drill deeper wells—hurting crops, safe drinking water access, and livelihoods. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are moving to strengthen economic ties: the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce invites Tashkent’s deputy governor to visit Kabul and expects a trade delegation, while the Termez Dialogue highlights regional connectivity efforts that include Afghanistan. Private Sector & Jobs: WFP also flags Afghanistan’s weak labor market and rising unemployment pressures, adding to household vulnerability as food and fuel costs climb. Cricket Pathways: Afghanistan’s Test skipper Hashmatullah Shahidi says the team needs more red-ball cricket to build depth, as Rashid Khan’s future in Tests remains unclear.

Flood Damage: Baghlan’s agriculture officials report floods have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, wiping out rain-fed and irrigated plots and hitting farmers’ investments hard. Energy & Trade Shock: The Middle East crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are pushing up fuel and transport costs, with WFP warning the knock-on effects are worsening food insecurity, including in Afghanistan. Women’s Human Capital: UNICEF and rights groups highlight that Taliban restrictions on girls’ education and women’s work are weakening Afghanistan’s economy and future labor supply. Connectivity & Transit: Afghanistan is pushing for expanded transit cooperation at the Termez Dialogue, while regional talks focus on strengthening trade links across Central and South Asia. Security & Markets: Reports point to Kabul’s power outages and slow internet hurting students and business revenue, adding pressure to already fragile economic conditions. Governance & Compliance: A separate regional story underscores how weak regulation and safety enforcement can quickly turn into economic and reputational losses—an issue Afghanistan businesses can’t ignore.