AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan-Iran Diplomacy: Taliban deputy PM for economic affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, condoling the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and discussing ways to deepen bilateral ties, with both sides stressing shared cultural and economic interests. Regional Security & Trade: The US reiterated Pakistan’s right to defend itself against terrorism after a UN vote on the Global Counterterrorism Strategy, following Pakistan’s cross-border counterterrorism actions linked to attacks near the Afghan border. Afghan Business & Industry: Kabul is set to host the fifth National Industry Week exhibition, while separate reports highlight Afghanistan’s push to expand trade and investment links, including an Iran-Afghanistan joint chamber delegation arriving in Kabul to boost commerce. Humanitarian & Funding Pressure: UN agencies warn Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis is worsening as funding gaps widen, with additional reporting noting the country remains among the world’s least-funded emergencies. Health Supply Chains: A feature on local medical device production underscores how Afghanistan’s access to medicines and equipment is shaped by import dependence and global supply disruptions.

Afghanistan-Trade & Industry: Kabul’s business calendar gets a boost as an industry and mining exhibition opens in Kabul to attract investment and boost trade, while a fifth national industry week exhibition is also set to host in the capital. Agriculture & Markets: Balkh melon farmers report a strong harvest but weak prices and no reliable export routes, urging government help to ship to Central Asia (including Uzbekistan) to avoid losses. Tax & Revenue: Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Revenue Authority logged 20% growth in Sales Tax on Services collection for FY2025-26, though infrastructure cess receipts fell after Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings closed. Humanitarian & Mobility: Iran says it will issue about 2,500 free visas for Afghan nationals to attend Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran and Mashhad, with thousands expected to travel. Business Environment & Services: UN-Habitat warns half of Afghanistan’s population could live in cities by 2060, underscoring rising demand for housing, services, and urban jobs. Regional Finance & Cooperation: UNDP says it met Taliban-controlled central bank officials to discuss microfinance cooperation, signaling continued interest in expanding financial access.

Industry & Trade: Afghanistan’s Fifth National and International Industry and Mining Week Exhibition opened in Kabul, aiming to attract investment and boost exports, with nearly 400 booths and thousands of expected visitors through July 7. Aviation & Connectivity: SAHA Airlines launched scheduled flights linking Tehran–Kabul, Mashhad–Mazar-e-Sharif, and Mashhad–Kandahar, with officials saying fares could drop by up to 50% and competition may improve access. Mining & Extraction: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum signed a 15-year deal to exploit a salt block in Herat’s Ghoryan district, including a $5.49m investment and royalty terms, alongside a separate contract for another block. Humanitarian Funding: The Norwegian Refugee Council warned Afghanistan is now among the world’s most neglected crises, citing a sharp fall in international aid while needs remain extremely high. Regional Business Links: Uzbekistan’s officials again positioned Tashkent as a bridge for Kabul to reach Western partners, while talks also point to deeper Central Asian trade and investment cooperation. Transport & Trade Costs: Pakistan’s transit curbs are pushing Indian exporters to reroute Afghanistan-bound goods via Dubai, reflecting ongoing bottlenecks in regional logistics. UN Support: Sweden pledged $5.26m to the UN’s Special Trust Fund for Afghanistan as funding shortages worsen.

Healthcare & Cross-Border Access: Afghan-Uzbek Joint Market Hospital is drawing growing demand for specialized care, reporting 134,000 patient visits in two years across 25 specialty departments, with neurology, orthopedics and urology among the most sought services. Microfinance & Financial Inclusion: UNDP’s Afghanistan representative met the Taliban-controlled central bank’s deputy governor to discuss expanding microfinance, with both sides linking broader access to economic growth and poverty reduction. Industry & Trade Promotion: Kabul hosted the Fifth National and International Industry and Mining Week Exhibition, where officials said the goal is to shift Afghanistan from importing toward exporting, backed by incentives like land allocation and tax exemptions. Returnees Need Jobs & Housing: Afghan returnees deported from Pakistan are calling for housing, employment and education support, saying rent costs and job access remain their biggest barriers. Security & Regional Tensions: Pakistan rejected India’s criticism of its anti-terror strikes in Afghanistan, while UNDP and Afghan economic officials continue pushing cooperation amid ongoing cross-border disputes.

Industry & Mining: Taliban officials opened Kabul’s fifth National and International Industry and Mines Week Exhibition, saying it brings “hundreds” of Afghan manufacturers and mining firms and urging investors to back mineral processing, while Abdul Salam Hanafi criticized weak international support for farmers after the poppy ban. Energy & Prices: Kabul fuel prices jumped as petrol rose nearly 14% in two days, with sellers blaming global market moves. Opium & Markets: UNODC says Afghanistan’s opium production fell 95% since 2023, reshaping heroin supply and pushing traffickers toward synthetic opioids. Trade & Investment: Uzbekistan’s trade data show exports down but imports up, with Afghanistan among key export destinations; separately, Uzbekistan and Qatar discussed expanding cooperation to support Afghanistan’s development. Agriculture & Land: Afghanistan’s MoJ says Sar-i-Pul pastureland totaling 3.94 million jeribs was identified and registered in the state land bank, with most still in grazing use. Women & Livelihoods: AFP reports women farmers in Nuristan sustaining winter food supplies despite Taliban limits on employment. Regional Security Spillover: Afghanistan and Pakistan traded accusations over cross-border strikes and drone incidents, adding uncertainty for business and mobility.

Fuel & Inflation Watch: Kabul petrol jumped from AFN 66 to AFN 75 per litre in two days (nearly 14%), with diesel also rising, squeezing transport costs and household budgets as Afghanistan relies heavily on imported fuel and traders warn route disruptions and supply constraints are driving volatility. Economic Outlook: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy is recovering, but growth is too weak to lift living standards; per-capita incomes fell 5.6% as demographic pressure and returning migrants strain a fragile system. Trade & Investment Links: Uzbekistan and Qatar discussed expanding cooperation to support Afghanistan’s development, focusing on trade, logistics, and humanitarian efforts. Regional Business Diplomacy: Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan launched a Joint Business Council to expand trade and investment, while Afghanistan’s commerce ministry also pushed export growth and Indian investment talks. Women & Agriculture: In Nuristan’s Parun Valley, women farmers are keeping village food supplies alive despite Taliban restrictions on most employment, highlighting how agriculture remains a key survival sector. Cross-border Security Risk: Rawadari condemned Pakistan’s strikes in eastern Afghan provinces as potentially violating international humanitarian law, raising fresh concerns for stability that businesses depend on.

Afghanistan Economy: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy is recovering, but growth is too weak to lift living standards as per-capita income falls 5.6% and demographic pressure keeps straining the fragile system, with trade disruptions from border closures and regional instability still weighing on exports, imports and investment. Urban Development & Health Services: Herat has started building a $600,000 underground market worth 38 million afghanis, aimed at easing traffic and better organizing lab and pharmacy services near the provincial hospital, with construction expected to finish in six months. Drug Control: Afghan counter-narcotics police destroyed a drug-processing lab in Helmand’s Baghran district and seized equipment used in illegal drug production, while earlier operations also reported poppy-farm destruction and seizures in Farah and Uruzgan. Regional Security & Civilian Impact: UN and Afghan officials condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes and border operations in eastern Afghanistan, with reports citing dozens of civilian deaths and injuries and renewed calls for diplomacy to prevent the conflict from spreading. Humanitarian & Rights Watch: UN chief António Guterres’ office said it is deeply concerned about Afghanistan-Pakistan violence and urged immediate cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians.

Cross-Border Violence: UNAMA says Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s border provinces killed at least 28 civilians and injured 49, while Taliban officials put the toll higher, as fighting continues despite repeated ceasefire efforts. Diplomacy & Security: Pakistan summoned Afghanistan’s chargé d’affaires over the Karachi Rangers attack, where an Afghan national was reportedly arrested; Islamabad also says Afghan soil is being used to orchestrate attacks. Business & Markets: Pakistan’s PSX slid after renewed US-Iran tensions raised worries about oil and the Strait of Hormuz, with the KSE-100 closing down 0.64%. Trade & Investment: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan signed MoUs to expand trade and set up a joint business council, while Kabul is set to host the fifth National Industry Week Exhibition (July 1–7) with 360+ booths to boost domestic production and investment. Energy & Costs: Kabul fuel prices jumped sharply as petrol rose nearly 14% in days, adding pressure to household and business budgets. Regulation & Migration: Pakistan ordered the arrest of Afghan nationals without valid visas starting July 10, tightening enforcement under its illegal foreigners repatriation plan. Women, Work & Rights: Reports highlight Taliban restrictions hitting Afghanistan’s café culture and women’s economic participation, underscoring how policy shifts can quickly reshape local livelihoods.

Kabul Fuel Watch: Fuel prices jumped in Kabul as petrol rose nearly 14% in days, tightening household budgets and raising pressure on transport and small business costs. Herat Market Investment: Herat has started construction of a $38 million afghani underground market, signaling a push to expand urban commerce and retail space. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on $350 million in trade and investment deals, while a joint business council is set to boost cross-border business links. Pakistan Deportation Crackdown: Pakistan ordered the arrest of undocumented Afghan migrants starting July 10, with daily reporting requirements—an escalation that could disrupt labor supply and increase humanitarian risk. Cross-Border Security Shock: Pakistan carried out airstrikes and ground operations in eastern Afghanistan targeting militants after attacks in Karachi, while Kabul and rights groups warn of civilian harm and trade disruption. Education & Skills Link: Uzbekistan expanded training for Afghan citizens and Afghan-related education cooperation was highlighted alongside Uzbekistan’s rising university sustainability rankings.

Afghan Trade & Industry: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan signed MoUs to set up a Joint Business Council and expand trade, investment, and transport links, with a Bishkek business forum bringing together officials and private-sector representatives. Humanitarian Aid & Governance: Islamic Emirate foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met UNAMA’s deputy chief to discuss better delivery and management of humanitarian assistance, alongside development and infrastructure cooperation. Telecom Costs: Afghanistan’s telecom regulator ATRA ordered mobile operators to roll back internet package prices to the previously approved ceiling after public backlash over recent increases. Domestic Production Push: A three-day exhibition in Pul-e-Khumri (Baghlan) promoted Afghan-made goods via 85 kiosks, aiming to boost local businesses and reduce reliance on imports. Returnee Livelihoods: Reporting from the Torkham border highlighted Afghan returnees rebuilding from scratch, with UNHCR and IOM figures showing large-scale returns and deportations since 2023. Regional Security Spillover: Pakistan’s Rangers attack in Karachi reportedly involved an attacker trained in Afghanistan, renewing concerns about cross-border militant networks. Market Reality Check: Kabul residents challenged Taliban claims of economic growth, saying prices are high, jobs are scarce, and many households can barely afford basic meals.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Diplomacy: The Islamic Emirate’s envoy in Islamabad says dialogue is the “only way” to resolve disputes, warning tensions harm both sides’ people and calling for diplomatic channels to protect future trade and cooperation. Humanitarian & Food Security: Taliban acting foreign minister Muttaqi met UNAMA’s new deputy chief to coordinate humanitarian assistance as UN agencies warn aid is shrinking and food insecurity is worsening, with border closures with Pakistan disrupting trade and driving up prices. Trade & Regional Business: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to set up a Joint Business Council in Bishkek, aiming to boost bilateral trade, investment, and transit links amid tighter Pakistan border conditions. Markets & Drugs: UNODC reports Afghanistan’s opium stockpiles still sustain the global heroin trade even after a reported 95% drop in cultivation since the Taliban ban, meaning disruption may be delayed while synthetic drugs rise. Disaster Risk: Flash floods and storms over the past 48 hours killed five people and damaged roads, farmland, houses, and irrigation in multiple provinces, including Kabul, Nangarhar, Kunar, and Samangan. Women & Culture: A three-day art exhibition in Ghazni showcased about 500 works by nearly 70 girls, with organizers pushing for more support so female artists can grow despite restrictions.

Earthquake Watch: A 6.1-magnitude quake struck northeastern Afghanistan, with strong tremors felt across Kabul, Balkh and Badakhshan and into Pakistan and India; no immediate damage or casualties were reported. Urban Finance: In Karachi, Jamaat-i-Islami’s KMC opposition bloc unveiled a Rs300bn “shadow budget” for 2026-27, arguing the city’s real needs far exceed the proposed Rs60bn and calling for more local control of taxes and transfers. Trade & Investment Links: Afghanistan’s commerce delegation met Afghan businesspeople in China and participated in trade events, while Balkh’s chamber pushed ties with Türkiye to expand exports, investment and transit cooperation. Business Environment Pressure: The Taliban’s smartphone ban in state institutions is disrupting workflows, slowing coordination and hurting morale, with enforcement expanding to more ministries and grade levels. Energy & Industry (Regional): Bangladesh signaled a “crash programme” to stabilize gas supply for industry, including an FSRU, aiming to unlock stalled investment. Security & Cross-Border Risk: Russia reiterated concerns about terrorist activity linked to groups operating from Afghanistan, keeping regional counter-terror pressure on Kabul in focus.

Disaster & Supply Chains: A 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush region, with tremors felt across Kabul, Pakistan and India’s Delhi-NCR and Jammu & Kashmir; no casualties were reported. Trade & Food Security: The WFP says Afghanistan’s trade has shifted heavily to Iran—about 60% now—after Pakistan border disruptions, pushing up transport costs and worsening food insecurity for 13.8 million people. Energy & Industry: Officials report TAPI gas pipeline progress in Herat, with over 90 km laid and 125 km prepared, aiming to supply Herat’s industrial park within six months, alongside power and railway plans. Markets: Kabul markets saw gold prices fall week-on-week, while key staples like sugar, flour, rice and cooking oil largely held steady; fuel prices also stayed unchanged. SME & Jobs: UNDP reaffirmed support for small and medium-sized enterprises, linking business growth to employment and household income amid rising unemployment and limits on women’s work. Mining & Output: Emirati-backed Shabashak coal mines in Afghanistan are producing about 200–300 tonnes daily, with officials citing high-quality coal for domestic demand.

Afghanistan–India Trade Talks: The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment says ACCI chair Sayed Karim Hashemi met India’s trade and agriculture officials to expand investment, food processing, technology transfer, and Afghan participation in India’s IITF, with an online trader-investor meeting planned. Opium Decline, Drug Shift: UNODC reports Afghanistan’s poppy cultivation fell 95% since the ban, with opium production dropping to decades-low levels, while drug use is shifting toward synthetic drugs like methamphetamine and misused medicines. Drug Treatment Funding: UNDP reaffirmed support for Afghanistan drug treatment and harm-reduction services, including opioid substitution therapy via Global Fund programs, citing ongoing health and human-rights needs. Security at the Border: CSTO says militants in Afghanistan’s northern border region remain a key threat to member states, with plans to intensify joint efforts against extremist groups. Markets & Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s economy and trade are also in focus as Herat orchard owners push for cold storage and export support, and reports highlight development momentum such as electricity transmission progress and Salang Highway reconstruction contracts.

Rehabilitation & Skills: A Kabul vocational workshop is giving recovering drug users a real second chance, pairing classroom training with trades like tailoring, shoemaking and electrical repair. Child Nutrition Crisis: Médecins Sans Frontières reports a sharp jump in severe acute malnutrition in southern Afghanistan, blaming worsening food insecurity and health-system disruptions. Opium-to-Farm Shift: In Logar, farmers are moving from poppy to wheat and potatoes after Afghanistan’s 2022 ban, seeking steadier income and less risk. Food & Business Safety: A Birmingham restaurant serving Afghan cuisine was shut after inspectors found a mouse infestation and major hygiene breaches. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan is sending specialist medical support to Afghanistan and also pushing regional connectivity, including plans for a cargo transshipment terminal linking Central Asia to Iran’s Gulf routes. Drug Market Watch: The UN warns global drug use is rising and synthetic drugs are surging, with Afghanistan’s opium ban reshaping opioid markets worldwide. Justice & Rights: The ICC judges sued the U.S. over sanctions they call unlawful, while reports also highlight tightening restrictions and rights rollbacks affecting women.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Trade & Diplomacy: The Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) praised Pakistan’s leadership for peace efforts and welcomed a decision to facilitate the movement of empty containers from Afghanistan, calling it a confidence-building step toward restarting regular cargo and transit. Afghan Business Exposure in China: Afghan traders took part in the China–Eurasia Expo 2026 in Urumqi with booths for carpets, saffron, dried fruits and gemstones, urging lower participation costs and broader government support to expand exports. Telecom Costs: Afghanistan’s telecom regulator and the Ministry of Communications ordered internet package prices to return to previous rates by next week after public complaints about higher prices and slow speeds. Security & Cross-Border Crime: Amritsar police arrested seven people, including an Afghan national, seizing heroin, multiple firearms and hawala-linked cash, with investigators citing social-media-linked foreign handlers. Regional Security Claims: The Islamic Emirate rejected claims that Afghan territory poses security threats to other countries, saying no group can use Afghan soil for armed activity.